Foreign Capital Flight Over $2T, India's Preemptive 35bp Rate Hike May Fail to Stop US Harvest
2024-07-05 News

Foreign Capital Flight Over $2T, India's Preemptive 35bp Rate Hike May Fail to Stop US Harvest

The Reserve Bank of India has taken the lead this time, completing its latest interest rate hike before the Federal Reserve, with the rate increasing by another 0.35 percentage points.

Although it is expected that the Federal Reserve will reduce the magnitude of its interest rate hikes, India does not dare to be complacent and still raises interest rates in advance to avoid a decline in the Indian exchange rate following a U.S. dollar interest rate hike.

On one hand, India's GDP continues to maintain a relatively high growth rate, but on the other hand, India is facing the predicament of wealth being harvested due to the continuous interest rate hikes of the U.S. dollar.

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In the coming period, India's economy is still likely to be in a growth phase.

According to predictions from American financial media, by 2030, India's average GDP growth rate will reach over 6%, and by 2031, India's GDP will more than double, surpassing Germany and Japan to become the world's third-largest economy.

Indians are now filled with confidence that the future economic development has a very good environmental factor and will succeed in this global economic upheaval, achieving an economic comeback.

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Modi also stated that in the next 25 years, India will become a developed country, realizing the historical leap from a developing country to a developed one.

It has to be said that India is currently in the best period of economic development.

Compared to other countries, the ruling party in India has a stable position, providing a strong and powerful guarantee for India's economic development.Made in India is providing a strong impetus for the growth of the Indian economy.

The domestic mobile phone manufacturing industry chain in India is becoming increasingly complete, making it the world's second-largest mobile phone manufacturing country. In the new energy vehicle industry, pharmaceutical sector, and other areas, India is also continuously making efforts, and in recent years, it has attracted a number of European and American companies to invest in India.

However, the adverse impact of the economic downturn in Europe and America on the Indian economy has already become apparent. For example, India's orders are decreasing, and many foreign buyers have adopted a cautious attitude.

Secondly, domestic consumer demand in India is sluggish.

In recent months, the Indian economy has been troubled by high inflation.

Although the announced inflation rate is lower than that of European and American countries, due to the large wealth gap in India, the rise in prices has a greater impact on the middle and lower classes than in European and American countries.

The inflation target set by the Reserve Bank of India is 6%, and it has clearly exceeded this target in recent months. Although India is also raising interest rates, inflation does not seem to have significantly receded.

On the other hand, to cope with inflation and currency devaluation, the Reserve Bank of India has to raise interest rates, which in turn leads to economic difficulties.Interest rate hikes lead to rising borrowing costs, which hinder the government's efforts to attract foreign investment and put pressure on economic growth.

Currently, India's unemployment rate remains high, with the unemployment rate increasing from 5.84% in September to 8.04% in October. This data is further suppressing the growth of India's consumer demand.

At the same time, some industry unions in India are very powerful and often oppose certain economic policies, causing policy uncertainty.

Now, capital outflows have appeared in India.

In a set of data provided by the Indian government, we see that by the end of November, foreign investors have cumulatively sold 2,000 billion rupees worth of financial assets, including stocks and bonds.

This capital outflow far exceeds the 2008 subprime crisis and has become the highest annual outflow in the past 20 years.

The pull of consumer demand on the economy is gradually decreasing, coupled with the impact of economic recession on India's exports, and the "blood loss" state of continuous capital outflow. India's future economic challenges will definitely not be few.

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