Japan Black Swan Alert: Yen Drops to Key Level, Top Forex Official Warns
2024-10-14 News

Japan Black Swan Alert: Yen Drops to Key Level, Top Forex Official Warns

Japan's top foreign exchange official helped to boost the yen on Friday after he warned that he was closely monitoring market movements following the yen's overnight fall to the 150 range against the US dollar.

Atsushi Mimura, the vice minister of finance for international affairs in Japan, said: "Currently, we are seeing slightly one-sided sudden fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. We will continue to closely watch the foreign exchange market, including any speculative behavior, with a high sense of urgency."

Prior to this, the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar fell to 150.32 yen per US dollar during Thursday's New York session, due to stronger-than-expected US retail sales and labor market data that dampened expectations for the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that retail sales in September increased by 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the 0.1% increase in August. Economists surveyed by Reuters had previously forecast a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

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In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly decreased last week. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday, for the week ending October 12, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 19,000 to 241,000. The median forecast among surveyed economists was 259,000.

Mimura's remarks helped to push the yen to rebound, with the exchange rate once touching 149.88 yen per US dollar.

Bloomberg noted that while the aforementioned comments did not imply that Japan will take any action at present, they helped to designate the 150 range as an area worth closely monitoring.

Japan has spent more than $100 billion this year to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen. It is believed that the last time Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market was on July 12, when the exchange rate was about 158.76 yen per US dollar.

The direction of the yen will depend on interest rate expectations in the United States and Japan in the coming months. Further signs of better-than-expected US economic performance will put downward pressure on the yen, as it will ease people's views on the pace of Federal Reserve actions.

The Bank of Japan's second interest rate hike in July this year triggered a collapse in global markets, a factor that may prompt the central bank to be cautious about its next move.It is widely anticipated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will maintain interest rates at their current levels during the October meeting, with the Japanese elections serving as another factor supporting the BOJ's decision to "stand pat." Economists predict that the BOJ's next move will likely occur in December or January of the following year, which would provide some support for the Japanese yen.

A former BOJ official recently pointed out that if the yen-to-US dollar exchange rate reaches the 150 range, the BOJ would opt to take action sooner rather than later.

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