Oil to Dip Below $70, US Stocks May Fall Amid CPI Hit
From this Friday to next Tuesday, inflation data from multiple countries will be disclosed one by one.
On Friday, China will take the lead in disclosing the latest CPI and PPI data; by Friday evening, the United States will announce PPI data, and CPI data will continue to be released next week.
With the release of these data, stock markets around the world may experience another wave of turmoil.
01, Unemployment
Previously, the S&P 500 index of the U.S. stock market has fallen for five consecutive trading days, retreating from 4,100 points to close to breaking through 3,900 points.
Obviously, the stock market is waiting for inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike decision.
Before the opening of the U.S. stock market last night, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time was announced, reaching the highest point since February this year, which is somewhat contradictory to the previously announced unexpected increase in the number of new jobs.
But anyway, this is also considered good news.
The Federal Reserve continues to contract and raise interest rates, nothing more than hoping to break the continuous rise in wages, and then drive the spiral inflation of prices.Perhaps influenced by this news, the U.S. stock market closed higher last night, with all three major indices rising, finally halting the consecutive declines of the previous days.
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However, the biggest issue now is the upcoming CPI data release; the market has already anticipated a continued decline. If the actual data fails to meet expectations, the U.S. stock market's upward trend may immediately come to a halt and could sharply reverse into a significant decline.
Last night, the Nasdaq Composite Index had the highest increase, rising by 1.13%, and is currently close to 12,000 points.
Correspondingly, many technology stocks also predominantly rose, with not many experiencing declines, but there were no substantial gains.
Among them, Amazon rose by 2.14%, while the rest, including Apple, Microsoft, and META, saw gains slightly over 1%. Google fell by 1.3%, and Tesla fell by 0.3%.
Chinese concept stocks had a higher increase, with the China Golden Dragon Index rising by 5.6%. Compared to the Nasdaq Composite Index, it outperformed by 4.5 percentage points and closed at its highest level in the past three months.
Bilibili rose again by 7.7%, Alibaba by 6.6%, Baidu by 5%, JD.com by 3.2%, Tencent by 4.3%, and Pinduoduo by 6%.
Last night, the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.75%, and most of the corresponding 11 industry sectors were also on the rise, except for the energy sector, which continued to decline, largely related to the ongoing drop in the international crude oil market.
03, Energy
The WTI crude oil price once again reached its lowest point since the high in March this year, falling to $71.12.This is a consecutive decline over 5 trading days, with the price falling from $82 to $71 within 5 days, reaching a drop of $11 per barrel.
The decline in international crude oil prices has, on the one hand, brought a sigh of relief to the Federal Reserve, as the biggest factor driving inflation has begun to weaken.
On the other hand, oil companies that have been insisting on not increasing investment and production have also breathed a sigh of relief. It's not because the pressure from the U.S. government has decreased, but because they are relieved that not increasing investment was the right decision.
Half a year ago, Biden has been exerting pressure on oil companies, hoping that domestic U.S. oil companies could increase production, but has been rejected.
The most critical reason for energy giants is that the supply of the crude oil market will exceed demand, and now it seems that this is indeed the case.
In the past period, these oil giants would rather use cash for buybacks than increase investment, fearing that blindly increasing investment, far in the future, the supply will greatly exceed demand, resulting in unrecoverable sunk costs from investment.
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