At the monetary policy meeting in September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points to prevent the U.S. labor market from cooling down too quickly. However, following the previous meeting, a series of U.S. labor market data that were released were stronger than expected, making the market's view of the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path unclear. On October 21st, several Federal Reserve officials made the latest speeches on the policy path. From their latest statements, it can be seen that many Federal Reserve officials hold the attitude of "cautiously cutting interest rates in the future."

On October 21st, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Logan stated that due to the various uncertainties in the economic environment, the Federal Reserve should be cautious in cutting interest rates, and she supports the use of "gradual" interest rate cuts. "As the Federal Reserve gradually lowers the policy interest rate, the inflation rate in the United States may fall to the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve, and the labor market will not cool down too quickly," Logan said. "If the economy develops as I expect, then the strategy of gradually reducing the policy interest rate to a more normal or neutral level can control risks and achieve goals."

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On the same day, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Schmid said that he is inclined to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts and adopt a "cautious and thoughtful" approach to interest rate cuts, as inflation is returning to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and the U.S. labor market is also normalizing. "Although I support reducing the restrictiveness of policy, I am more inclined to avoid large fluctuations. Moderate adjustments to monetary policy by the Federal Reserve can help maintain economic growth, price stability, and full employment," Schmid said.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kashkari also expected in a speech on the same day that the Federal Reserve may "moderately" lower interest rates in the next few months. Kashkari said that signs of labor market weakness were the reason for the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point interest rate cut last month, and there will be smaller interest rate cuts in future monetary policy meetings.

Based on the latest statements of several Federal Reserve officials this week, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the November monetary policy meeting. The Federal Reserve Watch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November with a possibility of 86%, down 9 percentage points from a week ago, while the possibility of the Federal Reserve "doing nothing" in November has increased. China Minsheng Bank's Chief Economist Wen Bin said that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points this year and a total of 100 basis points next year has increased, with the overall amplitude expected to weaken.